KC
KOHLS Corp (KSS)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 (13 weeks ended Feb 1, 2025): Net sales fell 9.4% to $5.18B, comps -6.7%; total revenue $5.40B. GAAP EPS was $0.43; adjusted EPS $0.95 after excluding $76M of impairments/store closing/other costs; gross margin expanded 49 bps to 32.9% .
- 2025 outlook set a cautious bar: net sales -5% to -7%, comps -4% to -6%, operating margin 2.2%–2.6%, EPS $0.10–$0.60; capex $400–$425M; quarterly dividend cut to $0.125 (from $0.50 in 2024), prioritizing balance sheet flexibility .
- Operating drivers were mixed: Sephora beauty comps +13% and gross margin execution helped, but digital comps -13.4% (impacted by an online inventory suppression issue now corrected) and legacy home softness weighed on sales; stores comps -3.1% outperformed digital .
- Restructuring: closure of 27 underperforming stores and one e-commerce fulfillment center (EFC) incurred $76M in charges; long-term debt reduced by $113M via redemption of 9.50% notes; Board declared the $0.125 dividend concurrent with results .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Gross margin execution: Q4 GM rate rose 49 bps YoY to 32.9% on optimized promotions and lower digital penetration; FY GM +50 bps to 37.2% .
- Beauty momentum: Sephora at Kohl’s comps +13% in Q4, accelerating from Q3; management called the shop-in-shop a traffic driver with high-margin tailwinds .
- Cost discipline: SG&A fell 4.5% YoY to $1.54B in Q4, with savings across stores, marketing, and supply chain; CFO also highlighted lower interest expense and continued expense optimization into 2025 .
Management quotes:
- “We have identified key areas of focus and are taking action in 2025 to reposition Kohl’s for future success… I am confident that the areas we identified will deliver on what customers want and expect from Kohl’s.” – CEO Ashley Buchanan .
- “Gross margin… [was] driven primarily by optimizing our promotional events as well as lower digital penetration.” – CFO Jill Timm .
- “Sephora continued to be a strong sales driver… comparable beauty sales increasing 13%.” – CFO Jill Timm .
What Went Wrong
- Top-line pressure: Q4 net sales -9.4% (benefit last year from 14th week ~$164M), comps -6.7%; operating income margin fell 270 bps YoY to 2.3% .
- Digital weakness: Digital comps -13.4% in Q4 on legacy home softness and a conversion headwind from an inventory suppression issue (since corrected) .
- Credit revenue headwind: “Other revenue” declined $24M YoY in Q4 due to lower revolving credit balances and lower late fees; 2025 guidance also contemplates a decline in “other revenue” on accounting change and lower AR balances .
Financial Results
Notes:
- Q4 includes ~$76M of impairments/store closing/other costs (closure of 27 stores and one EFC; severance/exit costs; asset impairments; lease gains) .
- Last year’s Q4 had a 14th week contributing ~$164M net sales; comps compare 13 weeks YoY .
KPIs and Operating Detail
Actual vs. Consensus (S&P Global)
S&P Global consensus estimates were unavailable at the time of analysis due to data access limits. Where estimates are absent, please note they were unavailable from S&P Global at the time of writing.
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We need to reprioritize our initiatives… deliver on these key tenants to better serve all of our customers… most of what we need to do is in our control.” – CEO Ashley Buchanan .
- “Reestablish [Kohl’s] as a leader in quality and value… reverse some of these [coupon] exclusions to simplify the experience.” – CEO Ashley Buchanan .
- “We experienced underperformance in our digital business… due to an online inventory suppression issue… we have corrected this issue and are seeing improved conversion quarter-to-date.” – CFO Jill Timm .
- “During the fourth quarter, the company announced the closure of 27 underperforming stores and 1 e-commerce fulfillment center… [resulting in] a onetime charge of $76 million.” – CFO Jill Timm .
- “In 2025, our focus will be rebuilding our cash balance… addressing our July 2025 maturities… the Board has made the decision to reduce the dividend… to $0.125 per share.” – CFO Jill Timm .
Q&A Highlights
- Merchandising reset: Management acknowledged self-inflicted friction from prior resets (e.g., removing productive categories/space), with a plan to rebuild proprietary brands and restore lost categories (petites, jewelry) while maintaining growth categories (Sephora, home decor, impulse) .
- Promotions and coupons: Kohl’s excluded “too many” brands from coupons; management is reversing unilateral exclusions to re-establish value clarity, while seeking more efficient, elastic promotion spend versus register markdowns .
- Digital/omni: Digital underperformed; inventory suppression issue fixed; omni enhancements and store layout optimization planned to improve conversion and trip assurance .
- Customer and macro: Lower-income cohorts remain constrained; value focus is elevated and likely persists near term; strategy pivots aim to meet customers where they are .
- Cost and fleet: Despite closing 27 stores, overall fleet remains profitable; more lease maturities offer flexibility; SG&A leverage targeted via labor, marketing, supply chain and inventory turns .
Estimates Context
- S&P Global consensus estimates for Q4 FY2024 (revenue/EPS) were unavailable at the time of analysis due to data access limits. Given management’s FY2025 guidance of EPS $0.10–$0.60 and sales declines of 5%–7%, Street models above the high end will need to recalibrate to the guide’s range .
- Where consensus values are missing in the tables, note they were unavailable from S&P Global at the time of writing.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Near-term: Cautious FY2025 guide (sales declines, low EPS range) and dividend cut to $0.125 signal a balance-sheet-first posture and a multi-quarter turnaround; potential near-term pressure until assortment, coupon, and digital fixes translate to traffic and conversion .
- Margin mix: Beauty (Sephora) growth and mix may support margins even in a soft top-line environment, while better promotion efficiency and proprietary brand rebuild could modestly expand gross margin in 2025 (+30–50 bps guided) .
- Execution watchpoints: Proof points include sustained digital conversion recovery, re-engagement of core customer (petites, jewelry), and measured improvement in legacy home; management is correcting coupon exclusions that frustrated loyalists .
- Cost discipline: SG&A plans (-3.5% to -5%) and store/EFC rationalization should help protect EBIT despite lower sales; however, lower “other revenue” (credit) is a headwind in 2025 .
- Liquidity/debt: Focus on rebuilding cash, reducing revolver reliance, and refinancing 2025 maturities reduces risk but limits near-term capital returns (lower dividend; repurchases deferred) .
- Medium term: If proprietary brands, simplified value messaging, and omni enhancements restore the core customer and improve digital traction, comps can stabilize and margins lift; Sephora rollout completion reduces incremental contribution—growth must come from basket expansion and cross-shopping .
- Monitor leadership transition: Subsequent to Q4 call, the Board terminated CEO Ashley Buchanan for cause and appointed Michael Bender as Interim CEO; organizational focus remains on simplification and efficiency while the search for a permanent CEO proceeds .